Headwater

Why most quarterly priorities slip, and how a leadership team and the teams below it can set fewer that get finished.

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Specific goals work, and most quarterly plans break the conditions they need

In a study published in 1975, Gary Latham and J. James Baldes worked with logging truck drivers whose loads averaged about 60% of the legal maximum weight. The drivers were given a specific, difficult goal for the weight of each load. Loads rose to about 90% of the maximum, and the company saved $250,000 in nine months. The drivers were paid by the hour, so no bonus was involved. They also modified their trucks so that they could estimate the weight of a load before driving to the weighing station.

This result is typical. Goal setting is one of the best-supported ideas in management research. In experiments over several decades, specific and difficult goals have produced better performance than instructions to “do your best”, by between 0.42 and 0.80 standard deviations, which is a medium to large effect. Goals work by directing attention and effort, and by making people persist and look for better methods.

Many companies set goals every quarter without results like these. In Gallup’s survey of 43,262 American employees in the first half of 2026, only 49% strongly agreed that they knew what was expected of them at work, and, as the guide to vision and strategy shows, few managers can name their company’s priorities.

Many companies set goals every quarter without results like these.

The drivers’ goal had four features that a typical quarterly plan lacks. It was a single number. It was difficult but possible, because the trucks were built to carry a legal load. It described a finished state, a fuller load, instead of an activity such as loading more carefully. And the drivers found out how they were doing each time a load was weighed.

Most quarterly plans break these conditions in four ways. They contain more priorities than a team can work on at once. They are sized by optimism instead of by the team’s own record. They describe activity instead of an end state that someone else could check. And they are reviewed too rarely, and too privately, for anyone to act while there is still time. Each of these can be fixed, and there is evidence for each fix. The fixes also have side effects, which chapter seven covers.

Teams finish less than they plan, and their own record shows how much less

In 1994 Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross asked psychology students writing honours theses when they expected to hand them in. On average the students said 33.9 days. They took 55.5. Fewer than a third (29.7%) finished by their own best estimate. The researchers also asked for a worst case, the date by which each student would finish if everything went as badly as possible. The average worst case was 48.6 days, which was still a week too early, and fewer than half of the students met it.

A second study looked at ordinary tasks that students planned to finish within a week. On average they were 74% sure they would finish their academic tasks by the time they named. They did so 37% of the time.

This is called the planning fallacy, and it also affects businesses. In a study of 1,471 IT projects, Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier found an average cost overrun of 27%. One project in six overran its budget by 200% on average, and its schedule by almost 70%.

Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo explain this with what they call the inside view. When people forecast their own work, they base the forecast on the plan and its steps, and ignore what happened to similar plans before. Buehler’s students did this. In a later study, when students listed their thoughts while making a prediction, 93% mentioned their plans for the task and none mentioned a past problem with similar work.

Kahneman describes a project of his own. He worked with a team writing a new school curriculum in Israel, and at one meeting each member estimated how many months the project would take. The estimates ranged from 18 to 30. One member, an expert in curriculum development, was then asked how long similar teams had taken. He said that about 40% had never finished, and that he knew of none that had finished in less than seven years. The team continued anyway. It finished eight years later, and the curriculum was rarely used.

The fix is to take the outside view. Flyvbjerg’s reference class forecasting turns it into a method. You find a set of similar past projects, look at how they turned out, and place your own project within that range before adjusting for anything that is different. A leadership team already has its reference class in its own records, which show what share of last quarter’s priorities were finished, and the quarter before. Buehler’s fourth study shows how much this helps. Students who were only reminded of past assignments predicted no better than anyone else. Students who were asked to connect those experiences to the task in front of them finished by their predicted date 60% of the time, against 29% in the control group, because their predictions were more realistic.

The second fix is to break the work into parts before estimating it. Justin Kruger and Matt Evans found that people who listed the parts of a task before estimating how long it would take gave longer and more accurate estimates. Later research adds a caution. Listing parts lengthens estimates when it reveals long steps that are easy to forget, and can shorten them when the listed parts are quick. The parts worth listing are the slow ones that plans leave out, such as approvals, purchasing, legal review, and holidays.

In practice, plan next quarter from last quarter’s finish rate. If your leadership team finished four of the seven priorities it set, plan for about four. Plan for more only if something important has changed.

How long students said, and how long they took

The thesis

Psychology students writing honours theses said when they expected to hand them in. Move the flag to where you think their average hand-in landed.

010203040506070
If everything goes well27.4 days
Best guess33.9 days
If everything goes badly48.6 days
Your guess: 40 days
Buehler, Griffin, and Ross (1994), studies 1, 2, and 4. Days are counted from the day each forecast was made. Even the worst-case forecasts were too early, and connecting the forecast to past experience doubled the share finished on time.Sources: Buehler, Griffin, and Ross (1994); Kahneman and Lovallo (1993); Flyvbjerg (2006)

Every priority you add slows down the ones you already have

Take two jobs that each need ten days of full attention. If you do them one after the other, the first is finished on day 10 and the second on day 20, an average of 15 days. If you alternate between them each day, they finish on days 19 and 20, an average of 19.5. The second job finishes no sooner, and the first finishes nine days later. Decio Coviello, Andrea Ichino, and Nicola Persico use this example in their research on what they call task juggling.

They then studied judges. In an Italian labour court, new cases were assigned by lottery, so judges received similar workloads. The judges who worked on more trials at the same time took longer to complete their cases, and their decisions were no better, judged by how often they were appealed.

The reason is arithmetic. Little’s law, a result from queuing theory, states that the average number of items in a system equals the rate at which items pass through it multiplied by the average time each one spends there. If a team finishes work at a fixed rate, doubling the number of open priorities doubles the time each one takes. A quarter has a fixed length, so a longer list leaves more work unfinished on the last day.

A quarter has a fixed length, so a longer list leaves more work unfinished on the last day.

Moving between tasks has a further cost. Sophie Leroy found that when people move from an unfinished task to a new one, part of their attention stays on the first task, and their performance on the second suffers. She calls this attention residue. A manager with seven priorities spends part of every week thinking about the six they are not working on.

No study has established how many priorities a leadership team should set, so treat any precise number as a guess. The closest evidence is a 2011 survey of more than 2,350 executives by Booz & Company. Of these, 64% said they had too many conflicting priorities. Executives who reported one to three company-wide priorities were the most likely to report revenue growth above their industry’s average. The data is self-reported and correlational, and successful companies may find it easier to say no.

Based on this evidence, we recommend three to five priorities for the company in a quarter, and no more than three for any one person, including those that come from their team. The test matters more than the number. If a priority cannot get real attention in most weeks of the quarter, move it to next quarter’s list, because keeping it on this one slows everything else down.

Keep the priorities you cut on a separate list for next quarter’s planning, where they can be considered again alongside anything new.

What happens when you start more priorities at once

Priorities
6
Work in each
4team-weeks
Worked on at once
Cost of switchingAssumption
Two jobs of ten days

In turn, they finish on days 10 and 20, an average of 15. Alternating daily, they finish on days 19 and 20, an average of 19.5.

Coviello, Ichino, and Persico

0
Finished by week 13
–
Average week of finishing
13.0
Work done but not finishedteam-weeks
End of quarter
04813172126
Weeks

Every priority is 54% done and none is finished.

A simplified model of a team with fixed capacity. The switching costs are assumptions and have not been measured. In this model, starting every priority at once delays all of them.Sources: Little (2011); Coviello, Ichino, and Persico (2014); Coviello, Ichino, and Persico (2015); Leroy (2009); Buehler, Griffin, and Ross (1994)

A priority needs an end state that someone else could check

Many quarterly priorities describe activities, such as improve onboarding, work on pricing, drive referrals, and review the CRM. An activity has no point at which it is either finished or failed. At the end of the quarter you can always say you worked on pricing.

At the end of the quarter you can always say you worked on pricing.

Locke and Latham’s explanation of why “do your best” produces worse results applies to activities too. A vague goal has no external reference point, so the person holding it decides what success means, and a wide range of results counts as acceptable. Specific goals reduce that range because they make clear what is to be achieved.

Write each priority as the state of things on the last day of the quarter, in terms that someone outside the team could check without asking the owner. “Work on pricing” becomes “New price list used on every quote from 1 June, approved by the board”. “Improve onboarding” becomes “Every starter from May has a laptop, logins, and a named buddy on their first morning”. The test is whether two people could look at the business on the last day and agree on whether it happened.

There is an important exception. When a task is new and complex for the people doing it, a hard performance target can make results worse, because people switch between methods without learning which ones work. For these tasks Locke and Latham recommend a specific learning goal, such as finding a set number of workable methods, instead of a performance target,. Goals have smaller effects on complex tasks in general. In the meta-analysis they cite, the advantage of specific difficult goals over “do your best” fell from 0.77 standard deviations on the simplest tasks to 0.41 on the most complex.

This gives three kinds of end state for a quarterly priority, and each can be checked. The first is a result, such as stock accuracy above 98% in the April and May counts. The second is a decision, such as the board choosing between leasing and buying the van fleet, with costed options in front of it. The third is a finding, such as knowing whether small builders will pay for next-day delivery, based on 20 customer conversations and a two-week trial. Findings are the kind most companies do not use. They let a team take on something uncertain in a quarter without claiming at the start that it knows the answer.

Keep each end state to one line. If it needs a paragraph, it usually contains two priorities, and one of them should wait.

Activity or end state

Activity0
    End state0

      Improve onboarding.

      Rewrite one of yours

      Do you already know how to do this?

      Your end state appears here.

      A state of the business on the last day, such as a figure reached or a change in use.

      • Not yetNames a state someone could inspect
      • Not yetHas a date or ends with the quarter
      • Not yetFits on one line
      If two people could disagree on the last day about whether it happened, it is not yet a priority.Sources: Locke and Latham (2002); Locke and Latham (2019)

      Each priority needs milestones due within the next few weeks

      A priority that is due in 90 days can seem urgent at the start of the quarter and optional a few weeks later. Albert Bandura and Dale Schunk showed the effect of goal distance in a small experiment. Forty children aged seven to ten, all well behind in subtraction and not interested in it, worked through 42 pages of self-paced material over seven sessions. Some were encouraged to aim for at least six pages each session. Others were encouraged to aim for all 42 pages by the end of the seventh session, which is the same goal set at a distance. A third group had no goal.

      The children with the six-page goal took 21 minutes a lesson, against 29 for the distant goal and 30 for no goal. After four sessions they had completed 74% of the material, against 55% and 53%. Their persistence on difficult problems rose by 90%, and when they were later given free time, 90% of them chose to do subtraction problems, against about 40% of the other children. The distant goal made no measurable difference compared with no goal.

      The distant goal made no measurable difference compared with no goal.

      The same work set as a near goal or a far goal

      The three groups

      40 children aged seven to ten, all badly behind in subtraction, worked through 42 pages over seven sessions.

      The near group aimed for six pages each session. The far group aimed for all 42 pages by the seventh. The third group had no goal.

      Minutes to complete each lesson (lower is faster)

      • Near goal (six pages a session)21 min
      • Far goal (all 42 pages by session seven)29 min
      • No goal30 min
      Bandura and Schunk (1981). A small study of children, shown here because its design isolates the effect of how near a goal is.Source: Bandura and Schunk (1981)

      This was a small study of children. The same pattern appears in a study of adults playing a business game. A distant profit goal on its own produced worse results than an instruction to do one’s best, and adding near-term goals to the distant one raised both confidence and profits above either.

      For a quarterly priority, this means milestones that fall due within the next few weeks, instead of being spread evenly across 13. In our experience three to six milestones are enough, with the first due within two weeks. Each milestone should itself be an end state, such as “supplier shortlist agreed” instead of “look at suppliers”. Writing milestones also shows up the slow parts of the work before you commit to a date, as chapter two describes.

      Two other findings are useful. The first concerns planning when to act. Implementation intentions are plans in the form “if situation X arises, I will do Y”. Peter Gollwitzer and Paschal Sheeran’s 2006 meta-analysis of 94 tests found a medium to large effect on reaching goals, of 0.65 standard deviations. A larger meta-analysis of 642 tests by Sheeran and colleagues puts the average effect at about 0.36, and at about 0.15 after a stricter correction for publication bias, which is small. A workplace field experiment shows that the detail matters. When a firm asked employees to write down the date and time they planned to get a flu jab, vaccination rose by 4.2 percentage points from a base of 33.1%. Writing down only the date made no significant difference. For a milestone, the equivalent is an owner and a date, and for the first step, a time in someone’s diary.

      The second concerns the effect of progress on the people making it. In Teresa Amabile and Steven Kramer’s diary study of project teams in seven companies, setbacks appeared on only 13% of people’s best days, and progress appeared on only 25% of their worst. Many of the steps forward people recorded were small, and they still produced strong positive reactions. The guide to 1:1s uses the same research to argue for putting obstacles at the top of a manager’s agenda. For a quarterly priority, it means a team should have something to finish every couple of weeks, which near-term milestones provide.

      Checking progress helps most when it is written down and seen by colleagues

      The strongest evidence in this guide is about checking progress. Harkin and colleagues analysed 138 randomised experiments in which one group was prompted to monitor its progress towards a goal and another was not. Monitoring improved goal attainment by 0.40 standard deviations. By a standard conversion, that means the average person who monitored did better than about two-thirds of those who did not.

      The details matter more than the overall figure. Monitoring had larger effects when progress was reported to someone else or made public, and when it was recorded. When people monitored privately and told nobody, the effect was 0.19. When they reported their progress to at least one other person, it was 0.47. When progress was written down, the effect was 0.43, against 0.29 when it was not. Tracking results and tracking actions worked about equally well, so both milestones and result measures are worth tracking. Two cautions apply. Most of the studies concern health behaviours such as diet, exercise, and blood pressure, and the authors note that there is little evidence from other areas. Only three studies tested fully public monitoring, which is too few to rely on alone.

      This makes the weekly check-in the best-supported part of the approach in this guide, as long as the status is written down and other people can see it.

      Which kinds of monitoring help most

      00.51

      Effect on goal attainment (d), with 95% confidence intervals. Choose a row for its details.

      Overall: d = 0.40, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.48, 138 studies, 18,398 people.

      Harkin and colleagues (2016), 138 randomised studies. Most concern health behaviours, and only three tested fully public monitoring. Monitoring that nobody else sees has less than half the effect of monitoring that is reported to someone.Source: Harkin and colleagues (2016)

      Feedback can make performance worse, particularly when it moves attention from the task to the person, as the guide to 1:1s explains. A weekly check-in should therefore cover the work, meaning what has moved, what is stuck, and what needs deciding. It should not be a weekly judgement of the owner.

      How often you check also matters. Connie Gersick followed eight project teams in six organisations from start to finish. Whether they had days or months, every team kept its first approach until almost exactly halfway through its time. It then went through a short period of intense activity in which it dropped old habits, went back to its sponsors, and made rapid progress. Gersick’s samples were small, with eight teams in the field and eight more in a laboratory follow-up, so treat the exact timing with care.

      Suppose a priority stalls in week five. If the leadership team reviews priorities properly only at the end of the quarter, it finds out in week 13, with no time left. With monthly reviews it finds out in week eight, with five weeks left and the halfway point already passed. With a weekly check-in it finds out in week five, with eight weeks left.

      Two things follow for how status is recorded. The status of each priority should be the owner’s honest judgement, on track or off track, recorded every week, because only the owner knows whether the remaining milestones are realistic. It should appear next to a measure that does not depend on anyone’s judgement, such as progress compared with the share of the quarter gone. When the two disagree, that is worth discussing. A priority marked on track with a third of the quarter gone and no milestones ticked should prompt a question.

      A priority marked on track with a third of the quarter gone and no milestones ticked should prompt a question.

      When a stall is noticed

      Review rhythm
      Progress
      Behind pace0%25%50%75%100%Time goneHalfway. In Gersick’s teams, this is when work changed gear.First seen in week 8, 5 weeks left012345678910111213
      Review rhythmStall first seenWeeks left to fix it
      WeeklyWeek 58
      FortnightlyWeek 67
      MonthlyWeek 85
      Only at quarter endWeek 13None
      An illustrative 13-week priority. The behind-pace threshold is a convention and not a research finding, so choose one in advance and keep to it. With monthly reviews, a stall in week five is not noticed until three of the eight remaining weeks have gone.Source: Gersick (1989)

      Goals narrow people’s attention, and that can cause harm

      Goals work partly by directing attention towards some things and away from others. When the goal measures the wrong thing, the same effect causes harm. In an early study cited by Locke and Latham, drivers who received feedback on several aspects of their driving improved on the aspects they had goals for and not on the others.

      In 2009 Lisa Ordóñez, Maurice Schweitzer, Adam Galinsky, and Max Bazerman published “Goals gone wild”, which argued that the benefits of goal setting had been overstated and its harms largely ignored. They listed several harms, including a narrow focus that neglects everything outside the goal, riskier behaviour, more unethical behaviour, less learning, damage to culture, and less intrinsic motivation. Their best-known example is Sears, which in the early 1990s set its car repair staff a sales goal of $147 an hour and found them overcharging customers and carrying out unnecessary repairs. Locke and Latham replied in the same journal that the critique relied on anecdotes against a large body of experimental evidence. Both sides agree on the central point, which is that specific goals narrow attention and can have unintended but predictable consequences.

      There is less experimental evidence for the harms than for the benefits, but it exists. In a laboratory study by Schweitzer, Ordóñez, and Douma, people with unmet specific goals were more likely than people told to do their best to overstate their performance, whether or not money was at stake. They were most likely to do so when they had just missed the goal. In an earlier experiment by Staw and Boettger, students proofreading a passage corrected more of both its grammar and its obvious errors of content when told to do their best than when given a specific goal for one kind of error.

      The NHS used targets widely in the 2000s, and Gwyn Bevan and Christopher Hood studied the results. Ambulance trusts were asked to reach 75% of life-threatening calls within eight minutes. They tended to aim for 75% and no higher, and there were strong allegations that some had moved ambulance stations from rural to urban areas to meet the target. One major hospital met its target for new eye outpatient appointments by cancelling and delaying follow-up appointments, which were not measured. A parliamentary select committee reported that 25 patients lost their sight over two years as a result. In 2002 to 2003, 139 of 158 acute trusts officially saw 90% of A&E patients within four hours, but in a patient survey only 69% of patients said they had been seen that quickly. Bevan and Hood describe this as “hitting the target and missing the point”.

      Businesses have the same problem. In 2016 the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fined Wells Fargo $100 million after employees, under pressure from sales targets and incentive pay, opened roughly 1.5 million deposit accounts and applied for roughly 565,000 credit cards that customers may not have authorised.

      Stretch goals carry a particular risk. In two experiments by Michael Shayne Gary and colleagues, participants ran a simulated airline with either a moderate profit goal or a stretch goal set at the 90th percentile of earlier performance. The stretch goal did not improve performance on average, and it spread the results out. The top 20% found strategies that worked. The other 80% did not, and many of them abandoned the goal for a lower one or for survival. Sim Sitkin and colleagues argue that stretch goals are most attractive to the organisations least able to afford the risk, which are those with weak recent performance and few spare resources,.

      For each priority, write down what must not get worse while you pursue it. We call this a guardrail. Four practices keep side effects small. Pair every numerical target with a limit in the area it could damage, such as quality, safety, or customers’ interests. Keep quarterly priorities out of bonus calculations. Schweitzer’s participants overstated their results even with no money involved, so removing pay will not remove the temptation, and there is no reason to add to it. Treat an honest “off track” in week five as a sign of good management. If you want ambition beyond what you expect to deliver, state it separately from the commitment. In Locke and Latham’s account, General Electric set stretch goals alongside minimum goals and did not penalise anyone for missing the stretch.

      For each priority, write down what must not get worse while you pursue it.

      What people did to meet the target

      NHS ambulance trusts, early 2000s

      Target: 75% of life-threatening calls reached within eight minutes.

      What happened?

      Real targets and documented responses. The guardrails are suggestions, written with hindsight. Each target was met or nearly met, and in each case the damage was to something that was not measured.Sources: Bevan and Hood (2006); Ordóñez and colleagues (2009); Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2016)

      Plan next quarter from what you finished last quarter

      Most of the research in this guide can be applied in a single planning session before the next quarter starts.

      1. Start with your own record. For the leadership team and each team below it, count the priorities set last quarter and the number finished. That finish rate is your reference class. Next quarter’s list should be about that long, or one longer if you have removed a known obstacle.
      2. Write the list of candidates, then cut it to what can get attention in most weeks. The company list should have three to five priorities, and nobody should own more than three, including team priorities. Put everything you cut on a list for the next planning session.
      3. Write each remaining priority as a one-line end state that someone else could check. Decide whether it is a result, a decision, or a finding, and use a finding wherever you do not yet know how to do the work. Give it one owner. If it is a team priority, say which company priority it supports, or say that it supports none.
      4. Break each priority into three to six milestones, each an end state in its own right, with the first due within two weeks. List the slow parts, such as approvals and suppliers, and make them milestones. Add a guardrail to every numerical target.
      5. Set the weekly routine now. Every Monday, each owner records in writing, where the team can see it, whether each priority is on track or off track and what is in the way. The weekly team meeting then spends its time on the priorities that are off track or behind pace.
      6. Book a proper review for week six or seven, with explicit permission to change the plan, cut a priority, or reduce its scope. That is when Gersick’s teams changed their approach.
      7. At the end of the quarter, close every priority as done or not done, with one line on why, before you set any new ones. Next quarter’s finish rate depends on this.

      Headwater is built around the approach this guide describes, with a short list of quarterly priorities that each have a clear end state, a Monday check-in, and a weekly team meeting that starts with what is stuck. It sits above the tools people use for their day-to-day work and holds the plan they share. The method does not depend on software, and the first step needs only last quarter’s list. Count how many of its priorities you finished, and plan from that.

      Further reading

      • Locke and Latham (2002), “Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation”. A summary of what goals do, when they help, and when they do not, by the two researchers who did most of the work.
      • Buehler, Griffin, and Ross (1994), “Exploring the planning fallacy”. Five studies of how people make optimistic forecasts, and the change that corrected them.
      • Harkin and colleagues (2016), “Does monitoring goal progress promote goal attainment?”. The meta-analysis behind the case for weekly, written, shared check-ins, including its limits.
      • Ordóñez, Schweitzer, Galinsky, and Bazerman (2009), “Goals gone wild”. The main case against careless goal setting. Read it with Locke and Latham’s reply.
      • Bevan and Hood (2006), “What’s measured is what matters”. An account of what targets did in the NHS, relevant to anyone writing a numerical priority.

      Sources

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